miercuri, 29 octombrie 2008

Imi place sa merg numai la vale... ca parca-i mersu mai usor

Deci poate economia sa mearga si mai rau? Se pare ca da... Si daca da, atunci cei care se afla cel mai aproape de evenimente s-ar putea sa fie cei care o sa observe cel mai tirziu. (vezi tanti financial advisor de care ziceam altadata)

Am intilnit fragmentul urmator, intr-un interviu acordat de Robert Lang, managerul unei companii de investitii financiare specializate in short-selling si bear markets.

"In answering this question, I turn to a professor of geology at UCLA. As an evolutionary biologist, biogeographer, and Pulitzer Prize winning author, Dr. Jared Diamond addresses the “it can’t break” mindset in a story about individuals who live below a dam. According to Diamond, attitude pollsters ask people who live downstream from the dam how concerned they are about the possibility of the dam bursting. Naturally, those that live further away from the dam are less concerned about the dam breaking that those that live closer to it. But shockingly, from a few miles below the dam, where one would assume the fear would be the greatest, as we approach the dam, the concern about the dam breaking falls off to zero. Why?
Diamond notes that those that live closest to the dam, who are sure to drown if the dam breaks, must believe that the dam could not break in order to preserve their own sanity. This ability to suppress or deny thoughts that cause us great pain is known as psychological denial. Diamond suggests that this behavior, common to individuals, could apply to groups as well. "

Analogia mi se pare elocventa si, din fericire pentru toata lumea, nu este o analogie despre masini :D